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The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a New
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N.º de artículo de eBay:389024378103
Última actualización el 07 oct 2025 11:48:31 H.EspVer todas las actualizacionesVer todas las actualizaciones
Características del artículo
- Estado
- ISBN
- 081297381X
- EAN
- 9780812973815
- Manufacturer
- Random House Trade
- Brand
- Random House Trade
- Binding
- TP
- Book Title
- The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the
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Product Information
The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes . A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book--itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb "The most prophetic voice of all." --GQ Praise for The Black Swan " A book] that altered modern thinking." -- The Times (London) "A masterpiece." --Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant." --Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works." --Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate " Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias and] narrative fallacy." --The Wall Street Journal "Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into." -- Financial Times "Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition." --The New York Times Book Review
Product Identifiers
Publisher
Random House Publishing Group
ISBN-10
081297381x
ISBN-13
9780812973815
eBay Product ID (ePID)
8038694172
Product Key Features
Publication Name
Black Swan: Second Edition : The Impact of the Highly Improbable: with a New Section: on Robustness and Fragility
Format
Trade Paperback
Language
English
Series
Incerto Ser.
Publication Year
2010
Type
Textbook
Number of Pages
480 Pages
Subject
Information Theory, Decision-Making & Problem Solving, Future Studies, Statistics, Corporate Finance / General
Subject Area
Computers, Business & Economics, Social Science
Dimensions
Item Length
8 in
Item Height
1 in
Item Width
5.2 in
Item Weight
12.2 Oz
Additional Product Features
Edition Number
2
LCCN
2010-292618
Series Volume Number
2
Lc Classification Number
Q375.T35 2010
Reviews
Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb "The most prophetic voice of all." --GQ Praise for The Black Swan "[A book] that altered modern thinking." -- The Times (London) "A masterpiece." --Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant." --Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works." --Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy." --The Wall Street Journal "Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into." -- Financial Times "Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition." --The New York Times Book Review, " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works."--Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into."-- Financial Times "A masterpiece."--Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."--Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times, "The Black Swanchanged my view of how the world works."-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into."-Financial Times "A masterpiece."-Chris Anderson, author ofThe Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."-Niall Ferguson,Los Angeles Times, " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works."-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into."- Financial Times "A masterpiece."-Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."-Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times
Target Audience
Trade
Illustrated
Yes
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Bargain Book Stores
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Votos de vendedor (1.278.960)
- 7***j (850)- Votos emitidos por el comprador.Últimos 6 mesesCompra verificadaI recently purchased an item from this eBay seller, and I couldn't be happier with the experience. From the prompt communication to the fast shipping, everything was handled with utmost professionalism. The item arrived exactly as described and was well-packaged to ensure its safety during transit. The seller was courteous and responsive, making the entire transaction smooth and hassle-free. I highly recommend this seller to anyone looking for quality products and excellent service.The Nature of Rest: What the Bible and Creation Teach Us about Sabbath Living (P (#365602297144)
- r***i (3893)- Votos emitidos por el comprador.Mes pasadoCompra verificadaEXCELLENT seller from START to FINISH. Communication skill were SUPERB. Item arrived EXACTLY as described and FAST. Seller took EXTREME care in packaging to AVOID damage during delivery process. This seller is an ASSET to the eBay community and I HIGHLY recommend. I will be back to do more ONGOING business. Ty 😊
- 6***c (498)- Votos emitidos por el comprador.Últimos 6 mesesCompra verificadaThe items were just as shown and in excellent condition. The books were very well packed for shipping. I will continue to do business with the seller. The prices are reasonable and the shipping cost are very good. The seller is great at communicating with the buyers keeping the parties well informed about the tranactions. Highly recommended! A+++++++Pompano Beach: A History (Paperback or Softback) (#387375874685)