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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Hardback or Cased Book)
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N.º de artículo de eBay:388894548412
Última actualización el 11 oct 2025 18:10:25 H.EspVer todas las actualizacionesVer todas las actualizaciones
Características del artículo
- Estado
- ISBN
- 1400063515
- EAN
- 9781400063512
- Manufacturer
- Random House (NY)
- Brand
- Random House (NY)
- Binding
- TC
Acerca de este producto
Product Identifiers
Publisher
Random House Publishing Group
ISBN-10
1400063515
ISBN-13
9781400063512
eBay Product ID (ePID)
56992376
Product Key Features
Edition
2
Book Title
Black Swan: Second Edition : The Impact of the Highly Improbable: with a New Section: on Robustness and Fragility
Number of Pages
480 Pages
Language
English
Topic
Information Theory, Future Studies, Decision-Making & Problem Solving, Statistics, Corporate Finance / General
Publication Year
2007
Illustrator
Yes
Genre
Computers, Social Science, Business & Economics
Book Series
Incerto Ser.
Format
Hardcover
Dimensions
Item Height
1.6 in
Item Weight
25 oz
Item Length
9.6 in
Item Width
6.4 in
Additional Product Features
Intended Audience
Trade
LCCN
2006-051093
TitleLeading
The
Reviews
Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb "The most prophetic voice of all." --GQ Praise for The Black Swan "[A book] that altered modern thinking." -- The Times (London) "A masterpiece." --Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant." --Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works." --Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy." --The Wall Street Journal "Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into." -- Financial Times "Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition." --The New York Times Book Review, " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works."--Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into."-- Financial Times "A masterpiece."--Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."--Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times From the Trade Paperback edition., "The Black Swanchanged my view of how the world works."-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into."-Financial Times "A masterpiece."-Chris Anderson, author ofThe Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."-Niall Ferguson,Los Angeles Times From the Trade Paperback edition., " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works."-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into."- Financial Times "A masterpiece."-Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."-Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times From the Trade Paperback edition., " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works."-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into."- Financial Times "A masterpiece."-Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."-Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times From the Trade Paperback edition.
Series Volume Number
2
Synopsis
Taleb delivers a groundbreaking look at the role played by the unexpected in life and history, and a fascinating examination of why we know less than we think we do--and what to do about it., NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER * The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don't know, now with a new section called "On Robustness and Fragility." A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a landmark book--itself a black swan., The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes . A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book--itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb "The most prophetic voice of all." --GQ Praise for The Black Swan " A book] that altered modern thinking." -- The Times (London) "A masterpiece." --Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant." --Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works." --Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate " Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias and] narrative fallacy." --The Wall Street Journal "Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into." -- Financial Times "Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition." --The New York Times Book Review, NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER - The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don't know, now with a new section called "On Robustness and Fragility." A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a landmark book--itself a black swan., A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications "The Black Swan" will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probabilitytheory. "The Black Swan" is a landmark book-itself a black swan.
LC Classification Number
Q375.T35 2007
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Bargain Book Stores
99,3% de votos positivos•3,3 millones artículos vendidos
Registrado como vendedor profesional
Votos de vendedor (1.279.930)
- 7***j (851)- Votos emitidos por el comprador.Últimos 6 mesesCompra verificadaI recently purchased an item from this eBay seller, and I couldn't be happier with the experience. From the prompt communication to the fast shipping, everything was handled with utmost professionalism. The item arrived exactly as described and was well-packaged to ensure its safety during transit. The seller was courteous and responsive, making the entire transaction smooth and hassle-free. I highly recommend this seller to anyone looking for quality products and excellent service.The Nature of Rest: What the Bible and Creation Teach Us about Sabbath Living (P (#365602297144)
- r***i (3894)- Votos emitidos por el comprador.Últimos 6 mesesCompra verificadaEXCELLENT seller from START to FINISH. Communication skill were SUPERB. Item arrived EXACTLY as described and FAST. Seller took EXTREME care in packaging to AVOID damage during delivery process. This seller is an ASSET to the eBay community and I HIGHLY recommend. I will be back to do more ONGOING business. Ty 😊
- 6***c (498)- Votos emitidos por el comprador.Últimos 6 mesesCompra verificadaThe items were just as shown and in excellent condition. The books were very well packed for shipping. I will continue to do business with the seller. The prices are reasonable and the shipping cost are very good. The seller is great at communicating with the buyers keeping the parties well informed about the tranactions. Highly recommended! A+++++++Pompano Beach: A History (Paperback or Softback) (#387375874685)