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The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted
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Características del artículo
- Estado
- Book Title
- The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma
- Publication Date
- 2011-05-17
- Pages
- 320
- ISBN
- 9780300169690
Acerca de este producto
Product Identifiers
Publisher
Yale University Press
ISBN-10
0300169698
ISBN-13
9780300169690
eBay Product ID (ePID)
99669266
Product Key Features
Number of Pages
288 Pages
Language
English
Publication Name
Theory That Would Not Die : How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
Subject
History & Philosophy, History, Probability & Statistics / Bayesian Analysis
Publication Year
2011
Type
Textbook
Subject Area
Mathematics, Science
Format
Hardcover
Dimensions
Item Height
1.1 in
Item Weight
22.5 Oz
Item Length
9.7 in
Item Width
6.6 in
Additional Product Features
Intended Audience
Trade
LCCN
2010-045037
Dewey Edition
22
TitleLeading
The
Reviews
"McGrayne''s The Theory That Would Not Die is the first popular science book to document the rocky story of Bayes''s rule . . . . Her tale has everything you would expect of a modern-day thriller. Espionage, nuclear warfare and cold war paranoia all feature as she tracks the theory''s crucial role in Alan Turing''s code-breaking during the second world war, and the US navy''s later use of the technique to track Soviet submarines."New Scientist, "Makes the theory come alive. . .enjoyable. . .densely packed and engaging, . . .very accessible. . .an admirable job of giving a voice to the scores of famous and non-famous people and data who contributed, for good or for worse."- Significance Magazine, "Thorough research of the subject matter coupled with flowing prose, an impressive set of interviews with Bayesian statisticians, and an extremely engaging style in telling the personal stories of the few nonconformist heroes of the Bayesian school."-Sam Behseta, Chance, "If you''re not thinking like a Bayesian, perhaps you should be."-John Allen Paulos, The New York Times Book Review, " The Theory That Would Not Die is an impressively researched, rollicking tale of the triumph of a powerful mathematical tool."-Andrew Robinson, Nature Vol. 475, "Engaging....Readers will be amazed at the impact that Bayes'' rule has had in diverse fields, as well as by its rejection by too many statisticians....I was brought up, statistically speaking, as what is called a frequentist...But reading McGrayne''s book has made me determined to try, once again, to master the intricacies of Bayesian statisics. I am confident that other readers will feel the same."- The Lancet, "A very engaging book that statisticians, probabilists, and history buffs in the mathematical sciences should enjoy."-David Agard, CryptologIA, "For the student who is being exposed to Bayesian statistics for the first time, McGrayne's book provides a wealth of illustrations to whet his or her appetite for more. It will broaden and deepen the field of reference of the more expert statistician, and the general reader will find an understandable, well-written, and fascinating account of a scientific field of great importance today."-Andrew I. Dale, Notices of the American Mathematical Society, "To have crafted a page-turner out of the history of statistics is an impressive feat. If only lectures at university had been this racy."-New Scientist, "A lively, engaging historical account...McGrayne describes actuarial, business, and military uses of the Bayesian approach, including its application to settle the disputed authorship of 12 of the Federalist Papers, and its use to connect cigarette smoking and lung cancer...All of this is accomplished through compelling, fast-moving prose...The reader cannot help but enjoy learning about some of the more gossipy episodes and outsized personalities."- Choice, "A very compelling documented account. . .very interesting reading."-Jose Bernardo, Valencia List Blog, "A book simply highlighting the astonishing 200 year controversy over Bayesian analysis would have been highly welcome. This book does so much more, however, uncovering the almost secret role of Bayesian analysis in a stunning series of the most important developments of the twentieth century. What a revelation and what a delightful read!"-James Berger, Arts & Sciences Professor of Statistics, Duke University, and member, National Academy of Sciences, "A very engaging book that statisticians, probabilists, and history buffs in the mathematical sciences should enjoy."-David Agard, Cryptologaeia, "A masterfully researched tale of human struggle and accomplishment . . . . Renders perplexing mathematical debates digestible and vivid for even the most lay of audiences."-Michael Washburn, Boston Globe, "Well known in statistical circles, Bayes's Theorem was first given in a posthumous paper by the English clergyman Thomas Bayes in the mid-eighteenth century. McGrayne provides a fascinating account of the modern use of this result in matters as diverse as cryptography, assurance, the investigation of the connection between smoking and cancer, RAND, the identification of the author of certain papers in The Federalist, election forecasting and the search for a missing H-bomb. The general reader will enjoy her easy style and the way in which she has successfully illustrated the use of a result of prime importance in scientific work."- Andrew I. Dale, author of A History of Inverse Probability From Thomas Bayes to Karl Pearson and Most Honorable Remembrance: The Life and Work of Thomas Bayes, "Delightful ... [and] McGrayne gives a superb synopsis of the fundamental development of probability and statistics by Laplace."-Scott L. Zeger of Johns Hopkins, Physics Today , "Engaging....Readers will be amazed at the impact that Bayes' rule has had in diverse fields, as well as by its rejection by too many statisticians....I was brought up, statistically speaking, as what is called a frequentist...But reading McGrayne's book has made me determined to try, once again, to master the intricacies of Bayesian statisics. I am confident that other readers will feel the same."- The Lancet, "If you're not thinking like a Bayesian, perhaps you should be."-John Allen Paulos, New York Times Book Review, "We now know how to think rationally about our uncertain world. This book describes in vivid prose, accessible to the lay person, the development of Bayes'' rule over more than two hundred years from an idea to its widespread acceptance in practice." -Dennis Lindley, University College London, "An intellectual romp touching on, among other topics, military ingenuity, the origins of modern epidemiology, and the theological foundation of modern mathematics."-Michael Washburn, Boston Globe, "McGrayne is such a good writer that she makes this obscure battle gripping for the general reader."- Engineering and Technology Magazine, "If you''re not thinking like a Bayesian, perhaps you should be."-John Allen Paulos, New York Times Book Review, "A masterfully researched tale of human struggle and accomplishment . . . Renders perplexing mathematical debates digestible and vivid for even the most lay of audiences."-Michael Washburn, Boston Globe, "Compelling, fast-paced reading full of lively characters and anecdotes. . . .A great story." -Robert E. Kass, Carnegie Mellon University
Dewey Decimal
519.5/42
Synopsis
Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information (Alan Turing's role in breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II), and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security. Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time. ", Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years--at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information (Alan Turing's role in breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II), and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security. Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.
LC Classification Number
QA279.5.M415 2011
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- r***g (243)- Votos emitidos por el comprador.Mes pasadoCompra verificadaBook was "nearly new" and "as described" in listing. The advertised price was fair and a good value. Unfortunately, the seller's shipping partner was very slow to get the book packaged and shipped. Shipping took too long, and the tracking info gave no reliable info on shipping date, time in transit or expected delivery. Seller did everything right, but their shipping partner needs improvement. I recommend this seller to other eBay buyers....... just make sure you're okay with the shipping terms.
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AlibrisBooks
99,1% de votos positivos•2,0 millones artículos vendidos
Registrado como vendedor profesional
Votos de vendedor (553.550)
- r***g (243)- Votos emitidos por el comprador.Mes pasadoCompra verificadaBook was "nearly new" and "as described" in listing. The advertised price was fair and a good value. Unfortunately, the seller's shipping partner was very slow to get the book packaged and shipped. Shipping took too long, and the tracking info gave no reliable info on shipping date, time in transit or expected delivery. Seller did everything right, but their shipping partner needs improvement. I recommend this seller to other eBay buyers....... just make sure you're okay with the shipping terms.
- e***u (283)- Votos emitidos por el comprador.Últimos 6 mesesCompra verificadaThe listing was for a hardcover version of this book; however, I received a paperback. The Seller replied quickly to my question about this issue and issued a full refund - and let me keep the book. So, a diligent Seller for sure - and well packaged and reasonable timing on shipping. Thank you for the refund, and as you suggested, I'll likely donate this volume and seek the hardcover.
- a***a (419)- Votos emitidos por el comprador.Mes pasadoCompra verificadaThis 2DVD set is in perfect condition. Cover art and case like new. Both DVDs played with no flaws. Description was listed as “Good”; I would describe it as “Very Good”, basically Like New. Delivery was super fast and packaging was excellent. The DVD case was wrapped well, then put in a cardboard envelope that was sturdy and hard to open (this is NOT a negative!). I have purchased from this company a few times and have always been very satisfied. Prices are great.