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Apocalypse When? : Calculating How Long the Human Race...
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Libro en perfecto estado y poco leído. La tapa no tiene desperfectos y si procede, con sobrecubierta para las tapas duras. Incluye todas las páginas sin arrugas ni roturas. El texto no está subrayado ni resaltado de forma alguna, y no hay anotaciones en los márgenes. Puede presentar marcas de identificación mínimas en la contraportada o las guardas. Muy poco usado. Consulta el anuncio del vendedor para obtener más información y la descripción de cualquier posible imperfección.
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Recogida local gratis en Pisgah Forest, North Carolina, Estados Unidos.
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Ubicado en: Pisgah Forest, North Carolina, Estados Unidos
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Entrega prevista entre el mié. 13 ago. y el mar. 19 ago. a 94104
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N.º de artículo de eBay:266687208481
Última actualización el 11 mar 2025 00:59:28 H.EspVer todas las actualizacionesVer todas las actualizaciones
Características del artículo
- Estado
- ISBN
- 9780387098364
Acerca de este producto
Product Identifiers
Publisher
Springer New York
ISBN-10
0387098364
ISBN-13
9780387098364
eBay Product ID (ePID)
69706965
Product Key Features
Number of Pages
Xxviii, 212 Pages
Publication Name
Apocalypse When? : Calculating How Long the Human Race Will Survive
Language
English
Publication Year
2009
Subject
Environmental Science (See Also Chemistry / Environmental), Physics / Astrophysics, Ecology, Statistics, Astronomy
Type
Textbook
Subject Area
Nature, Social Science, Science
Series
Springer Praxis Bks.
Format
Trade Paperback
Dimensions
Item Weight
16 Oz
Item Length
9.3 in
Item Width
6.1 in
Additional Product Features
Intended Audience
Scholarly & Professional
Reviews
From the reviews: "After introducing the reader to key ideas in probability and statistics, Wells starts to develop ideas of probability based first on random-hazard rates ... and then ideas based on our own history of survival as a species, and as a civilization. ... the book reasonably accessible to the general reader ... . The book is well organized, and is written in an easy style ... ." (Robert Connon Smith, The Observatory, Vol. 131 (1222), June, 2011), From the reviews:After introducing the reader to key ideas in probability and statistics, Wells starts to develop ideas of probability based first on random-hazard rates … and then ideas based on our own history of survival as a species, and as a civilization. … the book reasonably accessible to the general reader … . The book is well organized, and is written in an easy style … . (Robert Connon Smith, The Observatory, Vol. 131 (1222), June, 2011)
Number of Volumes
1 vol.
Illustrated
Yes
Synopsis
This book will be a key trailblazer in a new and upcoming field. The author's predictive approach relies on simple and intuitive probability formulations that will appeal to readers with a modest knowledge of astronomy, mathematics, and statistics. Wells' carefully erected theory stands on a sure footing and thus should serve as the basis of many rational predictions of survival in the face of not only natural disasters such as hits by asteroids or comets, but perhaps more surprisingly from man-made hazards arising from genetic engineering or robotics. Any formula for predicting human survival will invite controversy. Dr Wells counters anticipated criticism with a thorough approach in which four lines of reasoning are used to arrive at the same survival formula. One uses empirical survival statistics for business firms and stage shows. Another is based on uncertainty of risk rates. The third, more abstract, invokes Laplace's principle of insufficient reason and involves an observer's random arrival in the lifetime of the entity (the human race) in question. The fourth uses Bayesian theory. The author carefully explains and gives examples of the conditions under which his principle is valid and provides evidence that can counteract the arguments of critics who would reject it entirely. His deflection of possible criticisms results from two major premises: selecting the proper random variable and "reference class" to make predictions, and the recognition that if one does not know the law that governs a process, then the best prediction that can be made is his own formula., This book will be a key trailblazer in a new and upcoming field. The author's predictive approach relies on simple and intuitive probability formulations that will appeal to readers with a modest knowledge of astronomy, mathematics, and statistics. Wells' carefully erected theory stands on a sure footing and thus should serve as the basis of many rational predictions of survival in the face of natural disasters such as hits by asteroids or comets in the coming years. Any formula for predicting human survival will invite controversy. Dr Wells counters anticipated criticism with a thorough approach in which four lines of reasoning are used to arrive at the same survival formula. One uses empirical survival statistics for business firms and stage shows. Another is based on uncertainty of risk rates. The third, more abstract, invokes Laplace's principle of insufficient reason and involves an observer's random arrival in the lifetime of the entity (the human race) in question. The fourth uses Bayesian theory. The author carefully explains and gives examples of the conditions under which his principle is valid and provides evidence that can counteract the arguments of critics who would reject it entirely. His deflection of possible criticisms results from two major premises: selecting the proper random variable and "reference class" to make predictions, and the recognition that if one does not know the law that governs a process, then the best prediction that can be made is his own formula., Any formula for predicting human survival will invite controversy. This book provides a unique analysis of the chances of human survivability in the short and long term. It develops a formula for survival based on four separate measures.
LC Classification Number
QB1-991
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- m***n (595)- Votos emitidos por el comprador.Últimos 6 mesesCompra verificadaProduct as described, well packed and shipped quickly, good value. Thank you.
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- h***1 (127)- Votos emitidos por el comprador.Mes pasadoCompra verificadaIt was extremely quick shipping and was well packaged and exactly as described. Beautiful piece to add to my library. Great value would buy them again.
manybookslittletime
100% de votos positivos•4,5 mil artículos vendidos
Registrado como vendedor profesional
Votos de vendedor (1.798)
- m***n (595)- Votos emitidos por el comprador.Últimos 6 mesesCompra verificadaProduct as described, well packed and shipped quickly, good value. Thank you.
- n***r (34)- Votos emitidos por el comprador.Últimos 6 mesesCompra verificadaExcellent buying experience! Cannot say enough great things about this seller. Item was shipped promptly and was packed very nicely. Seller did an excellent job of wrapping it in bubble wrap it so that it was not damaged during transit. Highly recommend and thank you for a wonderful buying experience. Will purchase from them again!Some Secrets From Captain Anderson’s Kitchen (#256671855539)
- h***1 (127)- Votos emitidos por el comprador.Mes pasadoCompra verificadaIt was extremely quick shipping and was well packaged and exactly as described. Beautiful piece to add to my library. Great value would buy them again.